The Real Impact of Overturning Roe
PoliBlog points to a LA Times editorial about the impact of overturning Roe on the Republican party. The editorial indicates that by making abortion illegal many moderates will split off and go to the Democratic Party.
Strategists worry that overturning Roe would make abortion a top-tier political issue again, galvanizing liberals and moderates who have long assumed the issue was settled. At the same time, it would eliminate a major organizing principle of the evangelical movement that gained prominence in last year’s elections. And Republican candidates, who have long sidestepped the issue by assuring moderate voters that judges had the final say on abortion, would suddenly be forced to say how they would vote on a woman’s right to choose.
However, I don’t think the effect is quite so pronounced as that - at least not on a national level. Roe gave a federal right. Overturning it would not make abortion illegal nationwide - there is no Constitutional basis for it. It would return the issue to a state level. New York could have abortion legal, Arkansas could make it illegal, and Ohio could have partial restrictions on it. If it does return to the state’s jurisdiction, then Congress can have little impact on it - unless they do something stupid like tie federal education or highway funds to it.
In the meantime, the battle would move to state government - where politicians have been able to more successfully duck it. Over several years, there might be a long term impact of state moderates switch parties, but such a switch would take years or decades to impact the national party in a presidential election. A moderate Republican in Ohio might run as a Democrat and eventually end up on a national ticket.
So, is it possible? Sure. I just don’t think it will be a huge, pivotal moment with immediate impact- more like a slight realignment that may or may not cause long term repercussions.
